A recent study by DIW speaks for itself Best of HR – Berufebilder.de® has been hotly debated for months: We may not have a shortage of skilled workers! But how could that happen? Conspiracy of companies and the media - or just a gambling game and many misunderstandings?

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Censorship or media crime?

Schildbügerstreich? Media Crime? Or large scale wage dumping? The fact is, if the issue of professional defensiveness was not so serious and there were not so many injured victims, the story would be almost funny. Because all, really all, have participated: associations, employment agency and the oh so critical media at the Fachkräfte-Mangel-Chor.

And now that: In a weekly report of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) speaks labor market researcher Karl Brenke, of which I by the many discussion contributions on Best of HR – Berufebilder.de® have been convinced for some time (or at least that it can not be as serious as many do ..)

I found the interview with the well-known US sociologist Richard Sennett just fitting: In an interview with WN-TV, he explained the negative effects of short-term contracts on employees and the productivity of a Company have and how politics ours Working world in Future would have to design.

Professionals glut?

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And certainly not as it is claimed again and again that we have a shortage of skilled workers in Germany, for example, the Association of German Engineers (VDI) or the Federal Employment Agency. On the contrary, Karl Brenke even fears an impending lack of skilled workers for some areas. But how does that fit in with the General Skilled Labor Deficiency Hysteria?

The story got started when Spiegel Online reported in advance on a DIW study last Tuesday: In a weekly report published yesterday (to be downloaded free of charge as a PDF), Karl Brenke, Scientific Advisor on the Board of DIW Berlin, explains why he currently does not believe in a shortage of skilled workers: “We cannot rule it out that we in some Industries will have a glut of skilled workers. Currently, only a few areas can be identified where there is a lack of skilled workers. This is most likely still the case with the doctors.”

A media crime

The study should, it said Spiegel-Online, actually appear on Tuesday. But she didn't. When I asked the press office, I found out that it was supposed to be late. Reason: Because Brenke not only the general ruling Opinions from the shortage of skilled workers, but also in particular his Executive, the DIW President Klaus Zimmermann contradicts, the study had to be revised again quickly - or added, as the DIW press office said.

What was new was obviously the statement that Brenke's theses only refer to the next 3-5 years. Apart from that, the forecasts usually go wrong anyway, you don't take a long future oracle anyway - right? “A lot went wrong”, the press lady from DIW also knew to report, at which after the SPONArticle by Tuesday the phones were no longer idle. Mr. Zimmermann would probably have preferred to withdraw the study, which was no longer possible. Instead, you could only put them into perspective.

Do not trust statistics that you did not fake yourself!

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And what's in it now? Well, Karl Brenke has eagerly compiled all sorts of figures and well founded his theses. The possible flood of skilled workers is justified with several statistical values. At the same time, Benke refutes investigations by the Institute for German Studies Economy as methodologically questionable. And Brenke does one thing right away clear: So far, there are no scientific procedures at all that map the entire labor market and thus make a definitive statement about the macroeconomic skilled labor gap.

In Germany, for example, there is a lack of meaningful current data on wage developments in individual occupations, there are only figures on wages in individual groups of skilled workers. And the information on vacancies and the unemployed only contains the figures from the Federal Employment Agency – anything that is not reported there does not appear in the statistics. And not everything that is reported as a vacancy is really vacant (e.g. in the case of changers). Everything factors each statistic fast make less accurate.

In addition, according to Brenke, there must be a distinction between university graduates and specialists with operational skills Vocational Training be differentiated. With the latter, there could actually be a shortage at some point - if you don't get the young people to do it studieren what is needed in the labor market. Another oracle...

Why there is no professional defenses!

But what is really so explosive in the study? For example, wages for skilled workers had hardly risen, as would be the case with bottlenecks, and they have not developed better than those of other employees since 2009. The number of students and graduates has been rising since 2007.

The most important factor, however, is that the number of unemployed is higher than the number of vacancies, according to the Federal Agency for Employment and Calculations of DIW. Brenke sees a significant bottleneck only among the vulcanists, electrical installers and physicians.

... then they're gone ...

And the latter stupidly prefer to migrate to Scandinavia, even though medical training is so expensive: Brenke states: "Germany subsidizes other countries!"

By the way, not only: Karen, open the whole discussion Best of HR – Berufebilder.de® initiated and, thank you, I still look forward to every publication on the subject I aufmerksam also emigrated to Sweden: "I have not regretted my decision to turn my back on Germany for a minute and would do it again."

Misunderstanding or manipulation?

But where does the discrepancy between the previous tonality and this study come from? Behind held Hand Affected suspect manipulations by the employer side with the Objective, by a large selection on well-trained, local flexible workers, and on the other hand, to be able to phase out older engineers.

That sounds logical in a way, but as long as I don't have the evidence, I'd rather assume general ignorance, misjudgments and statistical inaccuracies on all sides: After all, German companies are still giving a lot at the moment Money from to im Internet, at career fairs or elsewhere well trained Boy People interested in a job at their company. And they wouldn't do that if they didn't need the people - right?

A rogue who thinks evil

This is how Bernd Schmitz, Head of University Marketing at Bayer AG in Leverkusen, writes Best of HR – Berufebilder.de®: “I can say for Bayer that we are constantly new Employees hire – over 2009 academics in 300 alone. A large proportion of these are graduates with an engineering degree.” But Schmitz also admits: “Personally, I would only speak of a shortage if open vacancies cannot be filled within a reasonable period of time. So far, we at Bayer have been able to fill all vacancies with new employees.”

Anyone who wanted to think ill of it could now say that this is of course pure image cultivation by various companies - practically advertising. And that the tactic serves to be able to skim off the cream from a large pool of graduates later on. But maybe you just really have Anxiety, later downstairs without standing there?

"We're not that desperate either!"

But what also became clear in the discussion in the blog: one or the other is inclined to take the word shortage of skilled workers literally. In any case, a shortage doesn't mean that companies are so desperate that they hire everyone: you're still looking to see if there are technical ones qualification, the specialization and personal factors, such as mobility or Teamwork, voices!

Mechanical engineer Marcus, who graduated in November 2009 and then worked there until August 2010, also had to realize this Job Search was. After more than 50 applications and 4 unsuccessful job interviews he writes: “Most of the time, the rejection was justified by the fact that my qualifications did not quite meet the requirements. Well, I finished my studies with 2,4, but I also have technical training and I did my practical semester abroad.”

Meanwhile, he emigrated - to Switzerland, where it worked with only two applications. Are German companies too stupid to recognize good people?

What can I do?

The fact is: many employers prefer to keep looking, despite the need, than unsuitable ones Candidates - as Birgitt Dondorff proves scientifically in this article and as this computer scientist reports, who prefers to remain anonymous:

“We are looking at our Company software developers in the Rhein-Main area. But most of us will too Candidate rejected. Applicants must have practical experience in the programming languages ​​and operating systems we use and speak English very well. You should also have knowledge of the stock market environment. We are under so much pressure that we can hardly train new people and it is therefore not possible to hire beginners. However, we definitely hire people over 50. Often there is also a lack of interpersonal relationships Communication. We just can't imagine some people on our teams. If a new hire turns out to be underperforming, they will be fired outright.”

Consequences?

The shortage of skilled workers in Germany could end badly in the long run: more and more new students studying with high expectations on the labor market, but not finding a job and then moving away. Bad investment for the state - also because, for example, money is invested in surplus subjects, while being saved at another point.

So maybe it's time to discuss something different about this topic?

Note, thanks and update

Although this is a serious topic, I have opted for a semi-ironic view - I hope you understand that.

Anyway, thank you to the well above 100 commentators who have been contributing to this topic for months with their testimonials, comments and links to more information. On monday my article will appear on RP-ONLINE. This is really crowdsourcing!

Update: The comments are of course as always with many more information, links and hints. Just join in the discussion!


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