OPINION! Futurologist Dr. Eike Wenzel: “If I could see the future, I would not write studies!”

Dr. Eike Wenzel, author and consultant at the Zukunftsinstitut, on economic trends, the media crisis, the power of Google, Richard David Precht and the Sinn and nonsense of trend and future research.

The media scientist, who has a doctorate, initially worked as a radio and TV journalist with a focus on feulliton, media and Economy, before he became acquainted with Matthias Horx, the Founders of the Zukunftsinstitut, which turned to future research.

Mr. Dr. Wenzel, you published two studies this year, namely “The Matrix of Change. What the world looks like after the crisis ”and“ meaning markets. The change in values ​​in the consumer world ”. Please explain briefly what it is about.

In The Matrix of Change, we wanted fast react to the economic crisis and work out: “What are the issues of the near future? Where is the change? What will be in the next Future important? In the case of the “Markets for the Sense” it was more about showing which fundamental change in our Society is taking place; namely that always mehe People no longer want to consume standard offers cheaply at any price, but are looking for conscious individual experiences and are willing to pay a lot for it Money to spend.

What are you up to?

Well, for example in tourism: Ballermann mass tourism is no longer attractive for many. Today, 20% of all tourists are individual travelers looking for very special experiences. For example, there are bicycle pilgrimages to Assisi, vacations in a hermitage in Sinai or nomad vacations in Chile. In Australia, for example, there is a luxury eco-resort with a rainforest villa, local food, special Aboriginal treatments in the spa and a solar-powered hot tub. Everything ideasthat make good money.

The books on the subject (advertising)

Their title sense markets sounds quite spiritual!

That's what it's about. People today want to think more about meaning again and have an increasing need for immaterial values. And you want to be enchanted. In the case of advice literature, for example, is a growth market. A study by the Institute for the Study of Religions University Bochum shows, for example, (http://www.religion-plural.org/) that esoteric and alternative offers in NRW are demanded annually by around 150.000 people. Meanwhile 2.500 centers, institutes and curative practices in NRW are to offer esoteric services.

How do you personally face the esoteric boom?

Personally, that scares me ...

... but you don't notice anything in your study!

Right, the study only implies that esotericism is ethically and morally problematic. It's much more about showing that the trend is there and that you have to deal with it. Because the church has slept through this development completely and the economy, apart from the book publishers, has hardly recognized the potential so far. Have along Companys here a wide variety of possibilities - just think of the small tea manufacturer with special types of tea ...

Discounts for your success (advertising)!

But is not that something bigott, on the one hand, the trend itself dubious, but on the other hand to make advertising?

No, one should not leave the field to the esoteric - one can do very good and important things with this topic - especially in the media and in the cultural sector. Take, for example, Peter Sloterdijk, who is enjoying great success with his new book You Must Change Your Life.

Or Richard David Precht.

He has written a smooth bestseller, which makes things much easier for me. Precht was then lucky that Elke Heidenreich reported in time. But, of course, Precht's success shows the trend towards more profound topics.

Apropos: According to their study, education and culture are promising markets. What is the best way to save money in the crisis?

Yes, exactly, because culture is reaching more and more people today. For example, the Metropolitan Opera in New York is broadcasting its productions in cinemas with great success. The British commercial broadcaster Classic FM had 4 million listeners per week within 4,2 months. That Concept: It provides classical pieces of music with explanatory tests. This shows that we shouldn't leave classical culture to the educated, but to normal culture Everyday life fetch. This is happening in the music industry right now, many more stars are playing live here today. As a result, many people have a more open approach to music.

But many stars must also live again, because the Internet sell their records badly. At the moment there are similar developments in the media sector. How do you see this as a journalist and author?

The Internet is here and we can't get past it. But that's also positive: Today we can make more and more content accessible to more and more people, there is more and more variety and small blogs. I also think it's good that google scans my books online to make them easier to find and I still get money for them. However, one would have to Google stronger check.

Can you understand that the newspapers, their subscribers and advertisers are migrating to the internet, not quite as positive?

Ja clearwho have overslept this development out of habit and now have to cut jobs. And of course, daily newspapers cannot fully compensate for their losses on the Internet - they need new business models, a new direction. For example, a newspaper as faceless as the Frankfurter Rundschau cannot survive with the previous models.

How do the new business models look like on the Internet?

I believe that there will be two revenue models in the future: advertising and paid content. Because above all managers, as I know from my day-to-day consulting work, thrive on good content. And the Financial Times has it successfully demonstrated how to use this potential by selling 117 subscriptions in companies worldwide.

Where you are addressing your own customers: What are those people for whom you are creating such studies?

As a rule, the managers and companies who want to inform themselves about future trends.

And how do you go about identifying future economic trends? Can the future be predicted at all?

If I could predict the future, I would not have to write any studies! But seriously: we do not operate an Orakelei, but try to describe social change processes. We look at what happens today, think about it, make studies and interviews. So we identify phenomena and try to explain them. In the end, we are trying to analyze how the economy will evolve over the next ten years. We also make statements on the long-term major trends, so-called megatrends, which will become important in the next 40-50 years.

Were there already trend developments that you have successfully predicted?

In 2002, for example, we began to deal with the subject of LOHAS and ecology in studies. It wasn't a hot topic back then. We then pursued it further: today it is considered the new lifestyle, which also has nothing to do with the earlier eco-muesli image. On the contrary, companies that are not ecologically oriented in the future Greenomics will Problems have to survive.

In your study so many examples come from the US. Are they actually transferable to Germany? Especially in terms of ecology, the US is rather backward compared to Germany.

Of course you have to be careful when transferring examples - you can only do that if you know the market. But the US still has a pioneering role in many areas. And just in terms of ecology, we wanted to show that there is also a Greenomics movement over there and that, for example, they are now also starting to build eco-houses.

Could one say that future research is like market research, but for a longer period?

No, market research is trying to deduce from the present evidence how the market will look tomorrow. Future research is not at all as dogmatic: how, through our research, we offer different contexts and say that there is high probability that the future will look like this. But we do not say it will certainly be so. Our theses have yet to be verified.

This sounds a little different in her study!

Yes, that's up to our clientele: They want to read clear results and the direct benefit of such studies. In order to explain the various phenomena, I then use the means of exaggeration in order to reach the companies with topics that are not initially popular for them, like something Sustainability. On this basis, you can then talk to the company about exactly what that means and what you can do with it.

And can companies do something with it? Do topics such as sustainability, environmental responsibility or more culture not only remain empty worthworms?

You would be surprised how interested companies are in these topics. Because they also notice that their customers suddenly tick differently and make completely different demands. Those who have already had corresponding experiences then also look for answers to these changes. I notice that every week in my everyday consulting work.

What do you advise entrepreneurs who want to invest in a future-oriented industry?

Quite clearly: Away from the classic target group pattern. Fixed target groups are disappearing more and more these days. Rather, one should look for current trends and waves in development, such as individual and personal products, Health and enjoyment.

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