I recently went to Best of HR - Berufebilder.de® on the SALE German engineers against their own association, the VDI, pointed out - and pointed out that the figures about a future shortage of skilled workers, which the VDI has been propagating for years, can be refuted. This is now confirmed by a new publication by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW).

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Figures of the VDI: Not comprehensible and overdrawn

Just a few weeks ago Willi Fuchs, director of the VDI, claimed in the SPIEGEL-ONLINE interview, the average age of engineers is 50 to 51 years; therefore, there is a wave of retirement pending, and thus a large need for replacement. In addition, the club had Criticism energetically rejected in his numbers.

Now published Dr. Karl Brenke, labor market and economic expert at DIW, who had already caused a stir at the end of 2010, new figures in which he took a closer look at the arguments of the VDI - and refuted them. Brenke cannot understand the VDI figures and considers them to be excessive.

In the current weekly report of the DIW and in one Article on Spiegel Online he explains that the alarmism of the VDI refers on the one hand to the open engineer positions at the Federal Employment Agency and on the other hand to the age structure of the engineers.

How does the VDI come up with its figures?

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In your well researched post on ZEIT ONLINE explains editor Tina Groll, how the VDI comes to the shortage of skilled workers - a calculation that Brenke does not consider reputable:

“The association bases its calculation on a survey from 2009. According to this, only every seventh engineering position is reported to the Federal Agency. Therefore, the club multiplies this number by a factor of seven. This number is then compared with the number of registered unemployed engineers - currently there are 18.882 people. In this way, the VDI can fill the gap of 87.000 specialists.

The average age is younger than the VDI

And what about the age structure? According to micro census 2008 were in Germany around 750000 engineers active. Her average age was 43,3 years. Less than a third of them were 50 years and older.

"Although engineers enter the job market relatively late due to their long training period, the average age is no higher than in other academic professions," said DIW expert Brenke.

Early retirement wave? Wrong!

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Since there has been no radical political in recent years Measures or developments on the job market for engineers, Brenke assumes that the age structure of engineers may have shifted slightly at best. Brenke says:

"I don't think it's realistic that from 2008 to now the average age has increased by seven years to 50-51 years",

This is also supported by the current employment statistics of the Federal Agency for Labor of June 2011.

Replacement of 20 000 engineers

DIW Berlin is assuming that there will be around half the need for replacement engineers in the coming years.

“An annual requirement of 40000 engineers – just to replace the retirees – cannot be realistically derived from the available figures, because then all employed engineers who are now 50 years old and older would have to retire within 5 ½ years. If you calculate fairly, you come to about 20000 people who retire every year for reasons of age.”

Future needs can be met by university graduates

Due to the upswing after the financial crisis, the number of engineers has risen overall – among those subject to social security contributions between 2008 and 2011 by an average of 1,5 percent per year. Brenke explains:

“Although this growth rate is not low, it is also not much higher than the average for all employees subject to social security contributions. There it was 1,1 percent. In recent years there has been a veritable run for engineering study places,” says the DIW labor market expert. So in 2010 around 50000 students have their Study in an industry-related engineering course. "Only the graduates who are currently coming out of the universities can cover the entire need for engineers."

Wrong numbers as a problem for job starters

Brenke therefore advocates a more realistic view of engineering needs in the current decade.

“Starting a career can be for Boy engineers become increasingly difficult when there is a glut of graduates.”

The Association of German Engineers made another press release clearthat in Germany in near Future a strong shortage of skilled workers is to be expected. Evidence: the number of vacancies in November 2010, which, by the way, blatantly contradict those of Karl Brenke.

What do the VDI say?

It works a little for me like: “What do I care about the statistics from last month. We'll get him the shortage of skilled workers - but now really! ” In detail, it reads like this:

In November 2010, the shortage of engineers worsened. According to the VDI/IW engineer monitor, around 47.000 engineers were missing. The increase of almost eight percent compared to the previous month resulted on the one hand from the increase in vacancies to 70.000. At the same time, engineering unemployment figures fell again in November light by two percent to 23.600. 15.800 and thus most vacancies were again in Baden-Württemberg, followed by 13.600 vacancies in North Rhine-Westphalia and almost 10.000 in Bavaria. With 24.500 jobs, the largest number of vacancies was again advertised for mechanical and vehicle engineers, 15.700 for electrical engineers and 12.300 for civil engineers. For the professional group of electrical engineers, this means an increase of almost 5 percent compared to October 2010, compared to the same month last year even by 41,4 percent.

Where do the figures come from?

Incidentally, the source for the figures in this report are the calculations of the Institute for Germans Economy. At Karl Brenke, the figures look completely different - for example, the mechanical and vehicle construction engineers addressed by the VDI:

Here, in October 2010, Brenke could only make 3.366 vacancies. And 2008, before the economic crisis it was also only 5.018 (see page 7 in the study).

Can this be calculated?

As this strong discrepancy comes to explain brand expert Brenke also right himself - namely on page 4 his study (which is here as PDF) - namely, on the one hand from a calculation error and, secondly, because not all registered vacancies actually are free:

The German Economic Institute (IW) has tried to Combination to record the supply and demand for engineers, for example, from company surveys and data from the Federal Employment Agency. On the basis of a relatively small sample, it is thus ascertained how many Companys to report their vacancies for engineers to the Federal Employment Agency. On this basis, a factor is calculated which extrapolates the number of vacancies reported at the employment service to reflect the total demand for engineers. Finally, the factor seven was used - the number of open engineering positions at the Federal Agency was multiplied by seven.

What is the problem?

Karl Brenke then explains why the process is problematic:

However, it is not permissible to simply extrapolate the vacancies using a calculated multiplier. Because from a macroeconomic point of view, only those vacancies are relevant for measuring the need for skilled workers that arise when a company wants to increase its staff, or because Employees retire from employment in this country and are to be replaced. However, job advertisements are often only due to a change of company. An example: An employee who is still working in the company has a professional change announced and thus triggered a job advertisement. This employee is now applying for a job advertisement with another employer, which was placed because an employee in his company wants to change careers. Several vacancies have arisen in this way, but no additional ones Workplace and not even a vacancy due to the retirement of an employee.

Conclusion: Critical discussion is necessary

I would wish that VDI and IW would join if they were already different Opinions are able to critically examine Brenke's study and discuss his theses. Silencing the DIW study and simply continuing as before does not seem very transparent and credible. An open discussion would be more conducive to the topic!

Or do you think that this short contribution with a few loosely dropped examples can invalidate a whole study? I think this is a little lean and little meaningful. The Institute for German Business and the VDI is apparently of a different opinion.


Top books on the subject

9783965963047

 9783965963849

 9783965963627

 9783965962804

 9783965965485

 9783965965300

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